Nifty Headed for Sudden Reversal or More Steam Left?

Nifty touched lifetime high levels above 25000 and showed short term profit booking.

Is it time to book profits or continue to ride the trend?

Let us look from Elliott wave perspective and understand the maturity of trend.

Nifty Weekly chart alternate scenario:
Nifty Daily chart:
Nifty has continued to move in unprecedented way. Since the low formed on 4^th of June 2024 on Election day, prices have still not reversed as per the simple 3 candlestick rules. There is yet no close below prior low along with low below prior low and high below prior high. (C<Lp, L<Lp, H<Hp) This is simplest condition that needs to satisfy to indicate atleast a pause in uptrend if not reversal.

It has been record 40 days since prices have not reversed on downside. We do not remember any such instance where the simple 3 candlestick rules helped to catch 40 days of up move and yet no reversal.

We turned super bullish on 5^th June as the Time cycles were turning on upside and prices were near 22398 levels. From there Nifty touched intraday high of 25078 levels, move of nearly 2700 points.

Neo wave perspective - Alternate scenario – We are showing alternate possibility in This shows that the earlier fall from 2022 to entire 2023 was wave (x). This suggests that post completion of ongoing Diametric pattern prices can move lower in form of wave (x) and will resume the positive trend after that. This wave (x) can take a few months to complete and February 2025 will be ideal time for the completion of the same.

Over short term prices have continued to move up in the form of wave g and has already crossed above the equality target to that of wave a. From wave perspective the trend looks matured but there is no negative confirmation as of now.

We need to get faster retracement of the last rising segment to confirm that the up move is reversing. We can see on short term hourly chart that the last rising segment is from 24774 levels. So break below this level will be first sign of reversal. Until then trend remains positive but shorting puts might be better option rather than buying calls.

In a nutshell, Nifty trend is positive and break above 25080 to extend this rally to Gann level of 25361. Any move below 24920 followed by 24774 will indicate short term correction is starting until 16^th August 2024 as per Time cycle.

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