Nifty 85 weeks Time cycle, USDINR – Time to BUY?

Nifty is standing on the cusp of Time cycle but there is no positive reversal yet as per price action. Is it time to buy or wait out?

Below research is picked up from monthly research report published for Astra members

Nifty weekly chart:

USDINR Daily chart

Following excerpt is picked up from monthly research report which is a part of Astra VIP Membership Link

Nifty formed a top in the month of September 2024 near 26277. Post that it has been 4 consecutive months including January that we have not seen any attempt to close above prior month’s high. This keeps the overall monthly trend on sell side. Earlier instance where we have seen such price and time correction was from October 2021 to June 2022. This lasted for approximately 8 months before we saw positive reversal.

Risk management – We are in unprecedented times which was not seen post Covid2020 lows. Traders who have been looking at markets as money making machine will be punished if there is no proper risk or money management strategy and only the smartest will survive. This is necessary to get most of the novices out of the market before the next major bull market resumes its up move!

 Time cycle 85 weeks – It was in October 2024 when we mentioned about the 85 weeks cycle which remains on sell side until 3^rd week of February 2025. We also mentioned in previous monthly research that the up move is in form of wave b and post its completion we should resume wave c lower. Prices failed to show any strong positive attempt in January above Gann level of 24728 and reversed sharply lower. We can clearly see the pressure that these bigger cycles can put on prices. We expect ongoing volatility to continue atleast until February end and if the correction extends for another 4 months as mentioned earlier we can see it until May 2025.

Neo wave pattern -  Nifty weekly chart clearly shows that prices are moving down in the form of wave (D) after completing wave (C) at the top of 26270 levels. This wave (D) can retrace down to 21281 levels which is 4^th June 2024 election day low. Events high and low are important and act as a magnet. Now that the high of Election day is broken on downside it has opened downside targets for 21287 which will be sufficient to get majority of the traders out of the market.

Rupee at Life time Lows – USDINR remains major concern and INR has sharply depreciated against USD to 87.47. This sharp deterioration will put pressure on inflation, growth and in turn profitability of many companies. IT industry can benefit from the ongoing up move in USDINR but the demand should not hamper the currency risk! On upside USDINR can move to 89 – 90 zone which can result into a chaos.

In a nutshell, we can clearly see that time cycle of 85 weeks helped us to be on the sell side since October 2024 and it has been already 5 months ahead that it helped to take a stand. We are now approaching the end of February but there is still no weekly positive price action. Elliott wave, Neo wave and Time cycles can provide strong forecasting ability for traders.

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