GOLD – Bang on using 51 period Time Cycle.
Dec 30, 2024
Time Cycles is a very important Technical Analysis study and is surprising that such basic concepts are rarely focused by traders. When we combine Time cycles with Wave theory we can see witness interesting results.
See how we captured this entire fall of nearly 1700 points even before it started in Gold with the help of Time cycle, Elliott wave and simple price indicators. Gold achieved both our given targets and moved way below it. Following research is picked up from our Monthly Report.
MCX Gold Daily chart with 51 Days’ Time cycle: Anticipated on 14th December 2024
MCX Gold Daily chart: Anticipated on 14th December 2024.
Gold historical performance: Anticipated on 14th December 2024.
Wave Analysis as on 14th December 2024:
During the month of November Gold witnessed rally of more than 5% from the lows. During this whole year Gold surged more than 25% i.e. from 63600 to 79700. It has been a strong run for gold in 2024 suggesting that this asset class holds significant importance in an investor portfolio. The main reasons behind this rise were the continuous buying of gold by the global central banks, rate cuts by the US FED, and the geopolitical uncertainty in the global markets. Now let us understand the current outlook for Gold from a technical perspective.
51 Days’ Time cycle: Time cycle continued to work as magic for capturing lows. Recent low was also made exactly on our cycle near 74850 on 24th November. Prices showed rally of more than 3900 points. The next cycle is due by 6th February 2025. Until then the cycle low of 74850 should remain protected on the downside.
On the daily chart, On the above chart we can see that after 3 days of continuous long run, Gold is now witnessing profit booking. However, the Daily cycle is intact on the positive side so the overall medium-term tone remains positive as long as cycle low is protected on the downside which is near 74850 levels. Prices witnessed rejection from the upper Bollinger Bands®. We can expect profit booking to continue towards the mid bands which is located near 76700 levels before a fresh rise towards fresh high begins!
MCX Gold Elliott wave perspective: As per wave perspective, currently wave (3) of [5] is unfolding on the upside. Wherein, wave (3) has retraced more than 38.2% of wave 1. The next target is near 79300 which 50% retracement followed by 80800 which will be 61.8% retracement.
In nutshell, after sharp rally now Gold is witnessing profit booking. For now, a break below 77200 will extend profit booking towards the mid Bollinger Bands® which is at 76700. A breach below it will be a sight of concern. On the upside a break above 77800 followed by 78200 is must for upside momentum to resume with the targets of 79300 followed by 80800 levels. Next few days price action is important as it will help to clear short term picture.
MCX Gold Daily chart with 51 Days’ Time cycle: Happened as on 30th December 2024
Happened as on 30th December, 2024
As we anticipated in our monthly report about possible profit booking in Gold once it breaches 77200 levels and bang on!! Gold witnessed a fall of more than 1700 points and made a low of 75459 levels. Gold also achieved our given targets in just a matter of 2 weeks since the report was published.
For now, Gold is consolidating near the trendline support. A break above 77400 is must for fresh buying to emerge. While on the downside a break below 76000 can resume selling.
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